Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 93.3%
Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète3 janv. 23, 19:17 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran use Nuclear weapons?
Manifold MarketsHouthi military action against Israel by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
It will be resolved YES if a reliable source reports that Iran has fired a nuclear weapon at Israel (it doesn't matter where the launch was and it doesn't matter if the missile is intercepted on his way).
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+7.0pt81.4%
- New People (NL)-3.6pt16.7%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.8pt1%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 M €
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No83.2%
- Yes16.8%
- Volume total
- 58,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 290,2 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.2pt56.1%
- October 3131.8%
- September 30-2.0pt10.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-2.0pt19%
- October 31-3.0pt10%
- September 30-1.6pt2%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No+0.5pt96%
- Yes-0.5pt4%
- Volume total
- 36,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 129,1 k €
POLYMARKETNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- March 31, 2027+1.5pt63%
- December-1.5pt41%
- October+3.5pt27%
+9 résultats de plus
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- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 18 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : It will be resolved YES if a reliable source reports that Iran has fired a nuclear weapon at Israel (it doesn't matter where the launch was and it doesn't matter if the missile is intercepted on his way).