Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleMilitary Installation or Static Deployment 100%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
46
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète28 févr. 26, 07:32 UTC1 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
100%
100%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any foreign military trainers in Ukraine be killed by Russian attacks?
Manifold MarketsChina will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRègles
This is an independent multiple-choice market, multiple options can resolve YES if multiple distinct targets are hit.
- U.S. the named outcome: Resolves YES if direct Iranian forces strike a manned U.S. base, outpost, or recognized static troop deployment (e.g., Al Asad in Iraq, Tower 22 in Jordan, or THAAD batteries operating in allied nations).
- U.S. Mobile Military Asset (Naval or Air): Resolves YES if direct Iranian forces strike, intentionally ram (causing casualties/sinking), or shoot down a manned U.S. warship, logistics vessel, or military aircraft.
- U.S. the named outcome: Resolves YES if direct Iranian forces strike a recognized U.S. Embassy or Consulate.
- U.S. the named outcome: Resolves YES if a kinetic attack is successfully executed by recognized Iranian state agents within the 50 U.S. states or official U.S. territories.
- No Direct Attack Occurs in 2026: Resolves YES on Jan 1, 2027, if none of the above kinetic thresholds are crossed.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Military Installation or Static Deployment à 100% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This is an independent multiple-choice market, multiple options can resolve YES if multiple distinct targets are hit.