Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 74.4%
Prévisionnistes
90
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète13 mars 26, 20:59 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill India become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become a democracy in 2026?
KalshiUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRègles
With the US and Israel launching a war on Iran and assassinating the Supreme Leader, will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026, or will this give way to a freer regime?
- If The Economist Democracy Index scores Iran lower for the year of 2026 than 2025, this market resolves YES.
- If it scores the same or higher, this market resolves NO.
- -- details below --
- Note that at the time of market creation, the 2025 The Economist Democracy Index has not yet been published, though it is expected to be published soon.
- To be clear, this market is comparing the index covering the state of Iran in 2025 and 2026, not the index published in 2025 and 2026.
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POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 74% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : With the US and Israel launching a war on Iran and assassinating the Supreme Leader, will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026, or will this give way to a freer regime?