Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 93.2%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète8 janv. 26, 00:09 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Greenland and Iceland go to war in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill India extradite Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh by EoY 2026?
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PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if India and Bangladesh engage in direct military conflict involving armed forces of both nations by December 31, 2026.
- This includes sustained combat operations, military strikes, or armed clashes that constitute war or armed conflict under international law.
- The resolution will be determined by credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) and official statements from either government confirming military engagement.
- Isolated border skirmishes, protests, diplomatic tensions, or economic sanctions alone do not constitute war.
- The conflict must involve organized military operations by state forces.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
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- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will India and Bangladesh go to war by EOY 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will India and Bangladesh go to war by EOY 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will India and Bangladesh go to war by EOY 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will India and Bangladesh go to war by EOY 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria