Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 78.5%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète3 janv. 26, 03:51 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?
Manifold MarketsIn 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?
Manifold MarketsWill the number of active English Wikipedia editors decrease by 2030?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2007088281507488174
- Resolves YES if at any point before EOY 2026, the articles available on Grokipedia exceed the amount of articles on Wikipedia's English site.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- In the unlikely event that either Grokipedia or Wikipedia shuts down, this market will be marked as N/A. Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Grokipedia and English Wikipedia have exactly the same number of articles at any point before EOY 2026, this does not count as surpassing and the market will resolve NO.
- Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Article counts will be determined using exact numbers unless the exact count is unavailable, in which case the creator will use the most accurate count available.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Grokipedia surpass English Wikipedia in article count by EOY 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 79% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Grokipedia surpass English Wikipedia in article count by EOY 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Grokipedia surpass English Wikipedia in article count by EOY 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Grokipedia surpass English Wikipedia in article count by EOY 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2007088281507488174