Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 77.6%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète29 déc. 25, 23:49 UTC29 déc. 26, 23:49 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Grokipedia surpass English Wikipedia in article count by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?
Manifold MarketsWill NYT write an article about a scandal at 80,000 Hours, before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiRègles
Main article, not talk page or internal page.
- Reference must remain for at least 1 month.
Marchés ouverts
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 30,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 18 k €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Volume total
- 8,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,7 k €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 15,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 952,2 €
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume total
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Volume total
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Volume total
- 136,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 419 €
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 78% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028? doit être résolu le 29 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Main article, not talk page or internal page.