Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 68.5%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète4 sept. 23, 17:46 UTC31 déc. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the number of active English Wikipedia editors increase by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Grokipedia surpass English Wikipedia in article count by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the world population decrease before 2035?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiRègles
The numbers applied through the following link apply:
- https://stats.wikimedia.org/#/en.wikipedia.org/contributing/active-editors/normal|line|all|(page_type)~content|monthly
- Resolves YES if there is a significant downward departure from the numbers observed since 2012 (excluding any short-term anomalies).
- See also the mirror question:
- @/lukres/will-the-number-of-active-english-w-f759ec910e2d
Marchés ouverts
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 30,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 18 k €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Volume total
- 8,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,7 k €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 15,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 952,2 €
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume total
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Volume total
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Volume total
- 136,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 419 €
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the number of active English Wikipedia editors decrease by 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 69% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the number of active English Wikipedia editors decrease by 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the number of active English Wikipedia editors decrease by 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will the number of active English Wikipedia editors decrease by 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The numbers applied through the following link apply: