Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 90.4%
Prévisionnistes
39
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard10 oct. 25, 02:58 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "AI be able to do a ✨performance✨ like a really good audiobook narrator." before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI tool be able to generate a feature-length movie about the OpenAI drama before the regular movie comes out?
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PolymarketHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
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Manifold Markets2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Inspired by this:
- [image]https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener#afxuogp7anb
- As per Musk's tweet, "really good" means a substantial increase over merely "watchable," but not to the level of high budget studio blockbuster.
- It must be a full length "movie," not merely a long video (e.g. video essay), or a short cohesive narrative/piece of art along the lines of a student film.
- And it must be made by Grok, although very modest human help is acceptable, so no need for 1-shot from the prompt.
- This is obviously an inherently subjective market, but I will try my best to be fair and impartial.
