Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 52.1%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète23 sept. 25, 02:01 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsU.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?
Manifold MarketsU.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 5% before 2028?
Manifold MarketsMortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?
PolymarketU.S. 10 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, any mainstream all-purpose consumer LLM assistant platform (e.g., ChatGPT, Google Gemini, Anthropic Claude, Meta AI, DeepSeek) has credible, public evidence that 10% of its daily active users spend ≥120 minutes per day in that assistant, measured over a period of at least one month FOR NON-WORK-RELATED TASKS
- Acceptable evidence: an official company disclosure; or a reputable third‑party measurement firm (e.g., Similarweb, data.ai/Sensor Tower, Comscore/Nielsen, Ofcom, Pew) publishing a platform‑level time‑spent distribution showing the 10% share.
- Aggregated stats across multiple assistants or across broad suites (e.g., Microsoft 365/Windows-wide “Copilot time”) do not count; the metric must be for a single assistant product.
- If multiple platforms meet the threshold, resolves YES upon the first qualifying publication.
- If no qualifying evidence is published by the deadline, resolves NO.
