Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
IAOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80%
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4
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète29 avr. 26, 16:35 UTC1 févr. 28, 00:00 UTC
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Even "illegible" Mythos reasoning traces seem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Help me launch Obsolete: a book aimed at buil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post llm assistant personas seem increasingly incoherent (some subjective observations) is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 80% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? doit être résolu le 1 février 2028.
- Comment Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.