Will an AI tool be able to generate a feature-length movie about the OpenAI drama before the regular movie comes out?
FedOne-OffIATechDivertissement3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.3%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète20 nov. 23, 20:48 UTC2 janv. 27, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Because the resolution criteria are somewhat subjective, I will not be trading in this market.
- Basically trying to answer this as a reasonable person would:
- I'm imagining a movie that looks like a live-action film; cartoons don't count.
- It should clearly depict the story of OpenAI's firing-Sama drama, etc. I think it's okay if the script was written by a human who fed it to a model that produced the movie.
- It would be nice, of course, if the script were mostly generated by an LLM, but that part is doable with the right prompt engineering using current technology, so it shouldn't be part of the resolution criteria.
Marchés ouverts
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt43.1%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 34,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,6 M €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt49.5%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt43.5%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 543,8 k €
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.8pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.9pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.6pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts1%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 7,6 M €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will an AI tool be able to generate a feature-length movie about the OpenAI drama before the regular movie comes out? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will an AI tool be able to generate a feature-length movie about the OpenAI drama before the regular movie comes out? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will an AI tool be able to generate a feature-length movie about the OpenAI drama before the regular movie comes out? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will an AI tool be able to generate a feature-length movie about the OpenAI drama before the regular movie comes out? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Because the resolution criteria are somewhat subjective, I will not be trading in this market.