Prévision communautaire actuelle
Down 5% to 14% 30.4%+12.6ptEn tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+12.6 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète15 déc. 25, 23:2931 déc. 26, 23:59
Tendances
Règles
Simple question: what will be the percentage difference between the S&P500 at the opening bell on the first trading day of 2026, compared to the closing bell on the last trading day of 2026.
- AI bubbles correction? interest rate cuts?
- Note these are days and hours in which the U.S. market is open, and not any after hours trading, or trading on international markets in different time
- Resolution criteria
- The market resolves based on the percentage change of the S&P 500 between the opening price on the first trading day of 2026 and the closing price on the last trading day of 2026.
- Only regular market hours (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET) count; after-hours trading is excluded.
Marchés ouverts
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change+12.0pt56%
- 25 bps increase-11.0pt43%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 74 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 M €
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Fed maintains rate+10.0pt53.4%
- Hike 25bps-11.0pt42.7%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)-0.3pt88.1%
- 1 (25 bps)+1.0pt8.9%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.4pt3%
+10 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change68.3%
- 25 bps increase26%
- 25 bps decrease+0.3pt3.9%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028-3.0pt84%
- Before July 2027-6.0pt77%
- Before 2027-6.0pt69%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4,1 M €
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-1.1pt88%
- Exactly 1 cut+2.1pt10%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.1pt2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decision in September?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in September 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Down 5% to 14% à 30% au 4 septembre 2026.
- Quand 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Simple question: what will be the percentage difference between the S&P500 at the opening bell on the first trading day of 2026, compared to the closing bell on the last trading day of 2026.