Will Google stick to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military by EOY 2026?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffIATech3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 90%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète27 févr. 26, 23:39 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
More than 100 Google A.I. employees sent a letter to Jeff Dean, a chief scientist, opposing Gemini’s use for U.S. surveillance and some autonomous weapons. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/26/technology/google-deepmind-letter-pentagon.html
- At the same time, Google is already providing some AI services to the US military, although it has not yet been approved for classified use https://breakingdefense.com/2026/02/pentagon-cto-says-its-not-democratic-for-anthropic-to-limit-military-use-of-claude-ai/
- If Google sticks to both elements of Anthropic's commitment, of not permitting usage of its AI for mass surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons by the US military, by the end of 2026, this will resolve to Yes.
- Note that if Google chooses to end its contract with the US military, this will still resolve to Yes, because presumably the is the same red lines as for Anthropic.
- Note that if they do strike a deal and the military somehow does use Google's Gemini or other AI tools for mass surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons without Google's explicit approval, such as through subterfuge, fudging definitions, or the Defense Procurement Act, this still resolves to Yes.
- The No condition has to be about Google explicitly permitting the US military to use its AI for mass surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Google stick to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military by EOY 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Google stick to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military by EOY 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Google stick to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military by EOY 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Google stick to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military by EOY 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : More than 100 Google A.I. employees sent a letter to Jeff Dean, a chief scientist, opposing Gemini’s use for U.S. surveillance and some autonomous weapons. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/26/technology/google-deepmind-letter-pentagon.html