Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 74.8%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 22 heures
Obsolète13 janv. 24, 04:00 UTC13 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
KalshiHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
PolymarketMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
PolymarketRègles
Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.
- For 2023, Berkeley Earth reported global warming was 1.54 °C. This question resolves YES if Berkeley Earth reports that annual average warming is equal to or higher than 1.50 degrees Celsius in 2027.
- For easy reference, here are Berkeley Earth's past numbers going back to 2010:
- [image]Same question but for:
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-21.9pt48%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 230,8 k €
- Volume 24h
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KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
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POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
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KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,9 k €
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 75% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth? doit être résolu le 13 janvier 2028.
- Comment Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.