Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 76.8%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète13 janv. 24, 04:02 UTC13 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2028, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Oct 26, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Miami on Oct 26, 2026?
KalshiRègles
Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.
- For 2023, Berkeley Earth reported global warming was 1.54 °C. This question resolves YES if Berkeley Earth reports that annual average warming is equal to or higher than 1.50 degrees Celsius in 2029.
- For easy reference, here are Berkeley Earth's past numbers going back to 2010:
- [image]Same question but for: