Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth?
One-OffWeather3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 89.3%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète13 janv. 24, 17:42 UTC13 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 9, 2026?
KalshiRègles
Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.
- For 2023, Berkeley Earth reported global warming was 1.54 °C. This question resolves YES if Berkeley Earth reports that annual average warming is equal to or higher than 2.00 degrees Celsius for any year before 2030 (i.e. 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, or 2029).
Marchés ouverts
Weather
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
- 32°C+90.5pt100%
- 25°C or below-0.1pt0%
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+8 résultats de plus
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- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- 22°C+77.4pt100%
- 17°C or below-1.1pt0%
- 18°C-4.0pt0%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+68.5pt100%
- 21°C or below-0.3pt0%
- 22°C-0.9pt0%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- 93° or above87.6%
- 91° to 92°7.6%
- 89° to 90°1.9%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 72,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 71,8 k €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Miami+44.0pt99%
- Chicago+13.0pt99%
- Houston64%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 71,6 k €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 9?
- 28°C+47.0pt100%
- 24°C or below0%
- 25°C-0.1pt0%
+8 résultats de plus
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Milan on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Chongqing on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 9?
- Highest temperature in London on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Taipei on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 9?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 89% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth? doit être résolu le 13 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in any year before 2030, according to Berkeley Earth? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.