Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 50.3%
Prévisionnistes
472
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète23 mars 24, 19:19 UTC2 janv. 45, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Barack Obama be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill a human die on the moon before a human walks on mars?
Manifold MarketsWill we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Open until either event happens
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-mars
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-the-moo
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-orbit-or-walk-o
- Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 50% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2045.
- Comment Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Open until either event happens