Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 56.6%
Prévisionnistes
37
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard28 janv. 24, 20:24 UTC7 janv. 00, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?
Manifold MarketsWill 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?
Manifold MarketsNew pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketNew pandemic before 2028?
PolymarketMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1) before a human ventures out onto the Martian surface.
- Numeric markets:
- @/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors
- Fusion reactor questions:
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1
Marchés ouverts
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volume total
- 15,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 18,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volume total
- 916 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 k €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 863,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1 k €
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 57% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars? doit être résolu le 7 janvier 2100.
- Comment Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1) before a human ventures out onto the Martian surface.