Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 65.8%
Prévisionnistes
100
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète21 avr. 23, 20:10 UTC31 déc. 50, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we get AGI before China surpasses the U.S. as the world's largest economy?
Manifold MarketsWill China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Extremely Large Telescope be the world's largest single optical telescope at the end of 2050
Manifold MarketsWill China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWorld’s largest company at the end of 2026
FutuurState of the economy at the end of 2026
KalshiRègles
This question will resolve as YES if China's nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surpasses that of the United States before December 31, 2050, based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) data.
- The resolution will not take into account other economic indicators such as Gross National Product (GNP), Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), or other alternative measures of economic power.
- The determination of the nominal GDP of China and the United States will be based on the current market exchange rate, not adjusted for inflation or other factors.
- In the event of a significant discrepancy in economic data between the IMF and other reputable sources, the resolution will defer to the IMF figures.
