Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 67.8%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète6 juil. 26, 18:48 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
Manifold MarketsWill the UK have greater access to US frontier AI than France in 2029?
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Manifold MarketsWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
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PolymarketBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, as of December 31, 2030, the leading frontier AI model developed primarily by a China-headquartered entity achieves parity with or surpasses the leading frontier AI model developed primarily by a US-headquartered entity.
- Resolution will be determined sequentially using the following sources:
- Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI): If Epoch AI is active and tracking capabilities as of December 31, 2030, this market resolves to YES if the highest-rated model developed by a China-headquartered organization has an ECI score equal to or higher than the highest-rated model developed by a US-headquartered organization.
- LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard: If the ECI is unavailable, this market resolves to YES if the top model developed by a China-headquartered organization on the overall LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard has an Arena Elo rating equal to or higher than the top model developed by a US-headquartered organization as of December 31, 2030.
- Stanford AI Index / CSET Reports: If both of the above metrics are defunct, the market will resolve to YES if the closest Stanford AI Index Report (e.g., the 2031 report tracking 2030 progress) or research from Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) explicitly states that Chinese frontier models have matched or overtaken US frontier models in capability.
Marchés ouverts
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 11,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 38,7 k €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+18.0pt56.1%
- 27°C-3.0pt19.6%
- 25°C-3.5pt15.9%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Volume total
- 356,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 13,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.6pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Volume total
- 2,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 11 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 68% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria