Probabilité implicite actuelle
Non 52%
Qualité du marché
32 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
78,8 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
20.0% / 76.0%
Écart
56.0 pt
Spread largeCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
15 sept. 26, 00:04 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
PolymarketWill the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?
PolymarketWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least two frontier AI labs announce a pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Frontier AI labs refers to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, and Meta.
- A pacing agreement means an agreement under which the parties commit to at least one of the following: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
- Agreements announced before market creation will not qualify.
- The labs party to the agreement must each announce it, either jointly or separately, through their official channels or through an authorized representative acting in an official capacity.
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.8pt15.8%
- Gemini-0.3pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 70,3 k €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.5pt85%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,80%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 72.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,4 k €
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude90.7%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT0.9%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 21,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 21,9 k €
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- SpaceXAI47%
- Google45%
- Microsoft41%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 20,9 k €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 52% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Frontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least two frontier AI labs announce a pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.