Les États-Unis ou le Royaume-Uni nationaliseront-ils un laboratoire d'IA frontière d'ici 2035?
IAOne-Off8aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 65.3%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 31 minutes
20 mai 24, 14:41 UTC8 janv. 35, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AI labs need to switch to monitoring chips for a moratorium on AI development to work?
Manifold MarketsFrontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?
PolymarketWhich AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?
PolymarketWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
PolymarketWhich AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?
PolymarketWill any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves YES if any lab responsible for producing state-of-the-art AI models is seized by the government of the USA or UK.
- Also resolves YES if >67% of the technical staff of such a lab begin working for the government in a <60 day span.
- A SotA model is one that is arguably the best one in the world on some dimension, including vague properties like common sense reasoning.
- I'll be leaning on the side of things counting, here.
- Government grants and contracts do not count.
- The government must be in a position to directly be able to halt/direct the researcher's/engineer's work by normal managerial control.
