Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 04:02 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.1%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète29 oct. 25, 19:55 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
PolymarketFrontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?
PolymarketWhich AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?
PolymarketWill the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the top-3 AI labs in 2030?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if any two of the following AI companies merge by December 31, 2027:
- Google AI (DeepMind)
- Meta AI (Superintelligence Labs)
- A merger is defined as a transaction where one company acquires another, resulting in a single combined entity under unified ownership and control.
- Partnerships, joint ventures, minority stake acquisitions, or talent acquisitions alone do not necessarily count as mergers, however something that clearly constitutes a merger in all but name would count.
