Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026?
Crime & JusticeOne-Off3mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 91.2%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète14 déc. 24, 05:40 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?
Manifold MarketsKash Patel out as FBI Director?
KalshiKash Patel out by which date?
PolymarketWill Kash Patel visit Russia before November?
KalshiKash Patel gone as FBI Director before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Kash Patel leave office in 2026?
PredictItRègles
The list consists of 60 people from an appendix in his book, as reported here: https://rollcall.com/2024/12/09/trumps-pick-to-lead-fbi-identified-government-gangsters/
- This question will resolve YES if and only if at least five of those 60 people are incarcerated for any reason as of December 31, 2026 (a little more than two years from the inception of the question).
- Update 2024-14-12 (PST): - Temporary jailing counts towards the resolution criteria - individuals only need to be physically incarcerated on December 31, 2026, regardless of conviction status (AI summary of creator comment)
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 91% au 14 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The list consists of 60 people from an appendix in his book, as reported here: https://rollcall.com/2024/12/09/trumps-pick-to-lead-fbi-identified-government-gangsters/