Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 59.3%
Prévisionnistes
46
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète25 nov. 25, 19:39 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:58 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Kash Patel gone as FBI Director before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsKash Patel out as FBI Director?
KalshiKash Patel out by which date?
PolymarketWill Kash Patel visit Russia before November?
KalshiWill at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?
Manifold MarketsRègles
[image]Resolution criteria
- Kash Patel became the ninth Director of the FBI on February 20, 2025.
- This market resolves YES if Patel is no longer serving as FBI Director before December 31, 2026.
- This includes resignation, removal, or any other departure from the position.
- Resolution will be determined by official FBI leadership announcements or credible news reporting of his departure.
- The market resolves NO if Patel remains FBI Director through December 31, 2026.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+12.0pt81.2%
- Yes-12.0pt18.8%
- Volume total
- 15 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1 M €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate+2.0pt50%
- D-House, R-Senate-2.0pt34%
- R-House, R-Senate-3.0pt14%
+1 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 188,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,6 k €
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-3.0pt62.4%
- Nithya Raman+4.0pt37.6%
- Volume total
- 27,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 643,5 k €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.1pt19%
- Jon Ossoff+0.8pt17%
- Gavin Newsom+0.3pt13%
+48 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change60.2%
- 25 bps increase35.9%
- 25 bps decrease-0.9pt1.9%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Texas Senate winner?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Kash Patel gone as FBI Director before EOY 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 59% au 14 septembre 2026.
- Quand Kash Patel gone as FBI Director before EOY 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Kash Patel gone as FBI Director before EOY 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Kash Patel gone as FBI Director before EOY 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : [image]Resolution criteria