Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleCyberattack ($1M+) 47%En tête parmi 15 options
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 minutes
17 juil. 26, 6:0717 août 27, 6:07
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Cyberattack ($1M+)47%
Tendance du volume
$42117 juil.7j de données28 juil.
Marchés Associés
Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
1,1 k €China invades Taiwan first: 11.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon?
497,4 €Oui: 56%
KALSHI
KALSHIWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
475,6 €Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.: 95.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?
312,6 €Oui: 4%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETIf AI kills everyone, how will it do it?
118,9 €Engineered pandemic: 13.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by which date?
2,6 M €July 31: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActifs dans ces sujets
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Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
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Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsRègles
I've seen a lot of concern about the release of Kimi K3, an open source model said to be comparable to Claude Mythos/Fable or GPT 5.6 Sol.
- Will these concerns be borne out?
- For the purposes of this market, "mass murder" includes biological or conventional terrorist attacks, including mass shootings, but not conventional military or genocide campaigns where Kimi is used in planning or targeting.
- I'll take a broad view of causation; any attack in which Kimi K3 (including a fine-tune, abliteration, or other modified version) is proven to have been used for planning or execution in any substantial form will be considered a "result", even if the information was available in other ways.
- To simplify resolution, if nobody presents compelling evidence for YES within 1 year, this market will resolve NO.