Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 56.8%
Prévisionnistes
35
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète17 juin 24, 09:01 UTC1 janv. 70, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill USA or China win in a war against each other?
Manifold MarketsWill America lose its war against Iran?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the following Western countries have a civil war by 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves the same as the original question on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/20588)Resolution Criteria
- For the purposes of this question, "Western" countries will be defined as the following:
- Austria Belgium Canada Croatia Czechia Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Great Britain Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland United States of America Australia New Zealand
- For the purpose of this question, "engage in a war" will be defined as one or more of the following being true:
- One Western country formally declares war on another Western country, or announces that it is in a state of war with that nation.