Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?
One-OffRussie / UkraineGéopolitique2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 20:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 72.8%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard26 juin 26, 13:08 UTC31 déc. 26, 20:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any new country trigger the process to become a CSTO member in 2026?
FutuurWill any other NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?
Manifold MarketsWill Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iceland remain a Non-EU member state by the year 2027?
Manifold MarketsAnother NATO article 4 by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the close date, a party to the Collective Security Treaty formally invokes Article 4 of the treaty and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, or at least one of its member states, acts upon the request.
- This market will otherwise resolve NO at the close date.
- This market is set to close at 21:00 UTC on 31 December 2026.