Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.2%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète27 juil. 26, 22:24 UTC31 déc. 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
No new countries join the European Union (EU) in 2026
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to join the European Union?
Manifold MarketsWill the next country to join the European Union be Montenegro?
Manifold MarketsWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
PolymarketWhich country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
PolymarketWill any country join the Mecca Agreement by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if any nation that is not currently a member of the European Union (EU) officially joins the EU as a full member state on or before December 31, 2026 (23:59:59 UTC).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Official accession requires the entry into force of the country's Accession Treaty, making it a full member.
- Completing accession negotiations, signing an accession treaty, or being granted candidate status will not suffice if the official date of full membership falls on or after January 1, 2027.
- The primary source of truth for resolution will be official publications and press releases from the Council of the European Union and the list of member states maintained on the official European Union portal.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a new country join the European Union before 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a new country join the European Union before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a new country join the European Union before 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will a new country join the European Union before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria