Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?
Politique commercialeOne-OffIARussie / UkraineChineEurope2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 24 oct. 2026, 15:31 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleOui 91.1%
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Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète13 juin 26, 09:11 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria:
- This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2027, OpenAI or xAI is legally required by a government body to restrict access to any general-purpose large language model (chat/completion model intended for broad use across many tasks, not a narrow fine-tune for a single domain, e.g. GPT-5.5-Cyber, GPT-Rosalind, etc.) on security or safety grounds, where the restriction reduces the population of users who can access the model relative to its prior or planned availability.
- This applies to both already-released models and models that were undergoing testing/pre-release at the time of the directive.
- National security is one possible basis for such a mandate, but the criteria are not limited to it — restrictions justified on grounds such as public safety, AI safety risk, cybersecurity risk, or similar government-stated rationales also qualify.
- This includes, but is not limited to, restrictions based on nationality/citizenship.
- Qualifying events include:
