Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 70.1%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète13 juin 26, 07:33 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US restrict access to Kimi in 2026?
KalshiWill the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress before the midterms?
Manifold MarketsUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Requires that the government through an official channel (e.g. not social media) implicitly or explicitly threatens legal action
- to make OAI restrict access to a model by otherwise unsanctioned persons or entities.
- An example of what woyld count is:
- https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access
- [link preview]