Plus de 5 000 Gazaouis mourront-ils de faim à cause du conflit actuel ?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffMoyen-Orient1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85%
Prévisionnistes
129
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète19 mars 24, 14:07 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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PolymarketRègles
Resolves Yes if at any point before market close a major international body such as the United Nations or the World Food Program asserts that 5,000 or more Gazans have starved to death for reasons directly caused by the current phase of the Israel/Hamas conflict that escalated on October 7th, 2023.
- For a bigger range:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Panfilo/how-many-gazans-will-starve-to-deat)Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the ceasefire extends past a month and the current conflict appears to have ended, the market will be closed to trading but will not resolve immediately.
- Resolution will be delayed until malnutrition death totals have been updated to the standards of sources like CNN and Wikipedia.
- Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has divested from this market and will remain neutral regarding when to stop counting deaths if the situation becomes ambiguous.