Plus de 5 000 Gazaouis mourront-ils de faim à cause du conflit actuel ?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffMiddle East3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.4%
Prévisionnistes
129
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète19 mars 24, 14:07 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will over 5000 Gazans be killed by the IDF in 2026?
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PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves Yes if at any point before market close a major international body such as the United Nations or the World Food Program asserts that 5,000 or more Gazans have starved to death for reasons directly caused by the current phase of the Israel/Hamas conflict that escalated on October 7th, 2023.
- For a bigger range:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Panfilo/how-many-gazans-will-starve-to-deat)Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the ceasefire extends past a month and the current conflict appears to have ended, the market will be closed to trading but will not resolve immediately.
- Resolution will be delayed until malnutrition death totals have been updated to the standards of sources like CNN and Wikipedia.
- Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has divested from this market and will remain neutral regarding when to stop counting deaths if the situation becomes ambiguous.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Plus de 5 000 Gazaouis mourront-ils de faim à cause du conflit actuel ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Plus de 5 000 Gazaouis mourront-ils de faim à cause du conflit actuel ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Plus de 5 000 Gazaouis mourront-ils de faim à cause du conflit actuel ? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Plus de 5 000 Gazaouis mourront-ils de faim à cause du conflit actuel ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves Yes if at any point before market close a major international body such as the United Nations or the World Food Program asserts that 5,000 or more Gazans have starved to death for reasons directly caused by the current phase of the Israel/Hamas conflict that escalated on October 7th, 2023.