Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleP vs NP 46%+6.8ptEn tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-0.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 minutes
14 août 25, 23:20 UTC14 août 35, 23:18 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill *all* Millennium Problems be solved by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill all 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhen will all Millennium Prize Problems be solved?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems
- The Clay Mathematics Institute officially designated the title Millennium Problem for the seven unsolved mathematical problems, the the named outcome, the named outcome, Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness, P versus NP problem, the named outcome, Yang–Mills existence and mass gap, and the Poincaré conjecture at the Millennium Meeting held on May 24, 2000.
- Thus, on the official website of the Clay Mathematics Institute, these seven problems are officially called the Millennium Problems.
- The the named outcome was solved now leaving six remaining problems
Marchés ouverts
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.8pt3%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 60,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 332,3 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-2.0pt20%
- Before 2028-2.0pt12%
- Before 2027-0.4pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 29,8 M €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+1.0pt72.5%
- 2+2.0pt26.5%
- 3-0.8pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No-5.2pt91%
- Yes+5.2pt9%
- Volume total
- 29,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 4,7 k €
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 203062%
- Before 2029-9.0pt20%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 275,2 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+1.0pt43%
- Above 1-5.0pt22%
- Above 2+3.0pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will Massachusetts scientific R&D jobs rise YoY?
- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
- Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?
- Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which of the seven millennium problems will be solved last? ?
- Manifold Markets cote P vs NP à 46% au 21 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which of the seven millennium problems will be solved last? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which of the seven millennium problems will be solved last? doit être résolu le 14 août 2035.
- Comment Which of the seven millennium problems will be solved last? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems