Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleEpoch Capabilities Index (ECI) 55.9%+7.8ptEn tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+7.8 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
9 avr. 26, 5:2231 déc. 26, 23:59
Tendances
Règles
Resolves to the AI benchmark market on MNX mainnet that generates the highest USD-equivalent volume in aggregate in 2026 (or N/A if there is no trading for some reason by the end of the year).
- Some of the benchmarks like ARC AGI may have several associated versions/markets (eg ARC-AGI-2, ARC-AGI-3).
- I will use the single market that has the highest associated volume across the category (rather than the sum of all markets within the category).
- Feel free to suggest other benchmarks in the comments.
Marchés ouverts
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- September 30-0.1pt99%
- October 31+0.6pt99%
- September 15+0.6pt98%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 457,4 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-4.0pt59.2%
- ChatGPT-1.3pt24.3%
- Grok+0.9pt7.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 8,7 M €
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.1pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+27.7pt37%
- September 17+22.2pt23%
- September 24+22.1pt23%
+27 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+5.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 149,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) à 56% au 4 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves to the AI benchmark market on MNX mainnet that generates the highest USD-equivalent volume in aggregate in 2026 (or N/A if there is no trading for some reason by the end of the year).