KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
At least 1520 score 69%+3.0ptEn tête parmi 8 options
Qualité du marché
64 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
1,3 k €
Liquidité
44,2 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
3.0 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
26 juin 26, 20:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1530 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1540 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+23.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+24.5pt43%
- Volume total
- 125,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 55 k €
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.6pt14.3%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+21.5pt50%
- September 30, 2026+20.5pt34%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-2.0pt5%
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.6pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,3 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Tencent market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour AI capability growth this year? ?
- Kalshi cote At least 1520 score à 69% au 11 septembre 2026.
- Quand AI capability growth this year? sera-t-il résolu ?
- AI capability growth this year? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment AI capability growth this year? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.