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  • Accueil
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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. IA
  3. AI capability growth this year?
AI capability growth this year?

AI capability growth this year?

9.0% (24h)IATechYearly6mo
KalshiKalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de frais
Probabilité implicite actuelle
At least 1650 score
At least 1650 score 9%-9.0%
En tête parmi 5 options
Qualite du marche

28 / 100

Faible qualité
Volume 24h

0,5 €

Liquidité

204,7 €

Faible liquidité
Achat / Vente

6.0% / 9.0%

Spread

50.0%

Spread large
Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes

6 janv. 26, 15:001 janv. 27, 15:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

At least 1650 score9%

Règles

If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1700 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1750 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Marchés Associés

AI capability growth before July?

AI capability growth before July?

127,3 €
At least 1550 score: 2%KalshiKALSHI
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

1,7 k €
Oui: 6%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

315,9 €
Oui: 26%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Which "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?

86,6 €
Mainstream narrative shift: 71.3%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

86,6 €
Oui: 26.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
How low will the Google Gemini 3.5 Flash output token price (paid tier) get in 2026?

How low will the Google Gemini 3.5 Flash output token price (paid tier) get in 2026?

75,9 €
$8/MTok or below: 24%KalshiKALSHI

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,863.19+2.00%SolanaSOL$65.23+1.73%EthereumETH$1,658.75+1.33%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.40%BNBBNB$601.17+2.46%XRPXRP$1.12+0.50%

Actualités Associées

Anthropic launches Claude Fable 5 with new safeguardsCrypto NewsEU orders Meta to restore WhatsApp access for rival AI chatbotsCrypto NewsJPMorgan plans longer-running AI agents for corporate workflows Crypto NewsOpenAI Files for IPO, Targets Valuation Up to $850BBlockchain.NewsOpenAI confidentially files to go public in the USCointelegraphNvidia expands South Korean AI partnerships across chips, cloud, and robotics Crypto News

Règles

If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1700 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1750 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.