Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleCommercially Available HEMs by 2030: Fully tamper-evident or tamper-proof AI hardware becomes commercially available before 2030 30.4%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète6 févr. 26, 13:52 UTC31 janv. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
More context for these scenarios is provided in this article on the Forecasting AI Futures blog.
- I will not bet on this market.
- Resolution Criteria
- Each answer resolves YES if the specified governance scenario occurs by the stated deadline, and NO otherwise.
- Several scenarios can come true, and I'll use my best judgement to resolve each one.
- Location Verification for US Export Controls: Resolves YES if the US requires location verification for exported AI chips before 2028.
