When will Israel next strike Iranian territory? (window closes Nov 30, 2026)
One-OffMoyen-OrientGéopolitiquePolitique1mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNo strike before December 1, 2026 41.5%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
1
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+16.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète21 oct. 26, 07:52 UTC30 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
When will Israel next strike Iranian territory? The window opens when this market is created and ends on November 30, 2026 at 23:59 UTC.
- What counts as a strike: an Israeli military attack (aircraft, missile, drone or special forces) that hits a target inside Iran's internationally recognized territory.
- That covers Iranian land, territorial waters and airspace (for example, shooting down an aircraft over Iran).
- Joint US–Israeli strikes count.
- All of the following count only if the Israeli government or IDF officially acknowledges the strike, or at least two of Reuters, AP and BBC attribute it to Israel:
- covert sabotage
