Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Never or after or including 2045 63.4%En tête parmi 6 options
Never or after or including 2045 63.4%Prévisionnistes
44
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète24 janv. 24, 07:28 UTC1 janv. 46, 12:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a verified AI-assisted solution to one of the Millennium Prize problems by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a trend of companies removing "AI-assisted" features from their products before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
• The date will be the date of the release of the pathogen, not the date when it causes the deaths.
- This may require a delay in the resolution of the market.
- Similarly, establishing the cause of such a pandemic may require some delay to the resolution of the market. • Market will be resolved according to official deaths (even though there are known issues with these figures)
- • Whether an incident was AI-assisted or not will be resolved based upon on an official government investigation into the incident.
- Claims from a government that is unreliable will be disregarded. • I just realised that I didn't actually manage to make the years unambiguous.
- So the period 2030-2035 includes 2030, but ends at the start of 2035. "Never or after 2045" actually means after the beginning of 2045.