Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleAGI is used in longevity research, but doesn't make significant advances 74.7%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
46
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète16 avr. 24, 17:26 UTC2 janv. 40, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]
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KalshiRègles
AGI is currently generally expected to appear some time in 2030s: @/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
- I would like to explore whether AGI will have any significant effect on longevity research and if no, then why.
- Here are some definitions of things mentioned in the options:
- AGI — and AI system, capable of autonomously doing any tasks involved in scientific research (since this question is about research)
- Significant advances in longevity — increasing the life-expectancy at birth by at least 2x, to at least 160 years.
- Whether AGI is used in longevity research — yes if some notable papers in the field are fully written by AI or some procedures are fully developed by AI.
Marchés ouverts
AI
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040? ?
- Manifold Markets cote AGI is used in longevity research, but doesn't make significant advances à 75% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2040.
- Comment What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : AGI is currently generally expected to appear some time in 2030s: @/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708