4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.
One-OffIA3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 60%
Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
28 déc. 25, 11:25 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2026".
- For the 2025 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
- You can find all the markets under the tag [2026 Forbes AI predictions].
- Note that I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2026's predictions, even if I or others disagree with his decision.
- I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
- Coming into 2025, expectations about AI’s trajectory and the timeline to artificial general intelligence were sky-high.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volume total
- 225,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 157 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 348,3 k €
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour 4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common. ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 60% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand 4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common. sera-t-il résolu ?
- 4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common. doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment 4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common. est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2026".