Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOpus 59%+39.0ptEn tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+39.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
3 sept. 26, 14:4831 déc. 26, 14:45
Tendances
Règles
The current publicly accessible line-up of Claude is Fable 5.1, Opus 5, Sonnet 5, and Haiku 4.5, as seen on https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/models/overview.
- Which tier will be the next to have a model publicly released? By publicly released, I mean Anthropic must announce the public release and the average American can access it just by making an account and spending money.
- If multiple models are released simultaneously, options will resolve to 100% times the proportion of the released models of each tier.
- If Anthropic "rereleases" an old model, I will either ignore that or resolve this N/A and create a new market.
- This market is a sequel to @/JoshSnider/what-tier-will-the-next-public-clau-NN6Q2llP8l , which resolved for Claude Fable 5.1
- [link preview]
Marchés ouverts
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- September 30-0.1pt99%
- October 31+0.6pt99%
- September 15+0.6pt98%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 457,4 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-4.0pt59.2%
- ChatGPT-1.3pt24.3%
- Grok+0.9pt7.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 8,7 M €
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.1pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+27.7pt37%
- September 17+22.2pt23%
- September 24+22.1pt23%
+27 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+5.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 149,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What tier will the next Claude release be? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Opus à 59% au 4 septembre 2026.
- Quand What tier will the next Claude release be? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What tier will the next Claude release be? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment What tier will the next Claude release be? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The current publicly accessible line-up of Claude is Fable 5.1, Opus 5, Sonnet 5, and Haiku 4.5, as seen on https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/models/overview.