What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffMiddle EastRussia / Ukraine3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 71.2%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète29 août 26, 08:29 UTC30 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market resolves to YES if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is signed by both belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran achieves the same.
- This market resolves to NO if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran is signed by the required belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine achieves the same.
- Signatory & Conflict Scope
- Russia–Ukraine: Must be signed by the executive leadership or authorized plenipotentiaries of both Russia and Ukraine.
- Iran Conflict: Must be signed by the executive leadership or authorized plenipotentiaries of Iran AND either (a) the United States, (b) Israel, or (c) both.
- Signing with one state satisfies the condition provided all hostilities between Iran and that signatory state formally terminate under the treaty terms.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 71% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's? doit être résolu le 30 décembre 2026.
- Comment What lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves to YES if a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is signed by both belligerents and successfully remains in effect for 180 consecutive calendar days before a formal, comprehensive peace agreement ending the conflict involving Iran achieves the same.