Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffMoyen-Orient2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 24 oct. 2026, 04:21 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 60.9%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète12 août 26, 16:29 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the first round of official direct or indirect diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran (including mediated talks via third parties like Oman, Qatar, or Pakistan) occurring on or after August 3, 2026, results in a ceasefire agreement that successfully lasts for at least 30 consecutive days.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Detailed Rules for Resolution:
- Eligible Negotiations: The negotiations must be widely recognized by major international media outlets as official diplomatic efforts (whether direct or indirect/mediated) between representatives of the U.S. and Iran aimed at de-escalation, conflict resolution, or establishing a truce.
- Ceasefire Definition: The negotiations must result in a mutually agreed ceasefire or pause in hostilities.