Us market crash in 2026?
FedOne-OffÉconomieMacro & EconomyEquitiesUS PoliticsBusiness & CorporateTrade Policy3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91%
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
10 janv. 26, 06:42 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next big economic crash occur?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?
Manifold MarketsJobs numbers in Sep 2026?
KalshiJobs numbers in Nov 2026?
KalshiJobs numbers in October 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolution Criteria
- A market crash is generally defined as a decline of 20% or more in the S&P 500 index.
- This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at or below 5,476 points at any time during 2026 (a 20% decline from the 6,845.5 closing level at the end of 2025).
- Resolution will be verified using the S&P 500 historical data from FRED or MarketWatch S&P 500 tracker.
- The S&P 500 rose 16.39% in 2025, extending a strong bull market.
- The CAPE ratio has been hovering in the 39-40 range recently and closed 2025 slightly above 40, which is only the second time in the history of the market that this valuation gauge has surpassed 40.
Marchés ouverts
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-3.0pt44.1%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 34,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,6 M €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt54.5%
- No change-3.0pt44.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt51%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt43.6%
- Cut 25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028+1.0pt85%
- Before July 2027+5.0pt84%
- Before 202773%
- Volume total
- 3,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 45,5 k €
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt2%
+10 résultats de plus
KALSHIFed rate cut before 2027?
- No87%
- Yes+3.8pt13%
- Volume total
- 997 k €
- Volume 24h
- 41,2 k €
- Fed Decision in October?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Us market crash in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 91% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Us market crash in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Us market crash in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Us market crash in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution Criteria