Will an AI Labor Shock Crash Markets by 2035?
ÉconomieIAOne-OffSanté et médecineActionsEuropeEntreprises et affaires8a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 58.9%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète8 déc. 25, 01:46 UTC31 déc. 34, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 20 years?
Manifold MarketsWill the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 10 years?
Manifold MarketsWill the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 15 years?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada's Unemployment Rate exceed 6.4% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Labor market) (Employment) (Layoffs)?
ForecastExWill Canada's Unemployment Rate exceed 6.6% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Labor market) (Employment) (Layoffs)?
ForecastExRègles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2035, a major equity market correction is triggered primarily by AI‑ and robotics‑driven reductions in the economic value of human labor, as defined below.
- What counts as a “major equity market correction”?
- For this market, a “major correction” means:
- At least one of these broad indices:
- Suffers a peak‑to‑trough decline of ≥30% in nominal terms,
- With the peak and trough no more than 18 months apart.
