Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years?
One-OffÉconomie2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 68%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète11 sept. 23, 01:05 UTC11 sept. 28, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?
Manifold MarketsUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a Trump economic boom?
KalshiWill the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS economic recession in 2026?
FutuurRègles
Its hard to quantify this exactly.
- At least according to this article the (mid-term) damage in global economic growth was about 2 trillion USD (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/a-guide-to-the-financial-crisis--10-years-later/2018/09/10/114b76ba-af10-11e8-a20b-5f4f84429666_story.html).
- Anything reasonable near that number counts.
- If you have better ideas to measure this, comment below.
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52%
- No change-3.0pt46.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 323,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3 k €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 523 k €
- Volume 24h
- 22 k €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Volume total
- 611,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP86%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 10,5 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No94%
- Yes+1.0pt6%
- Volume total
- 2,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 7,7 k €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Mexico unemployment rate in August
- 2026: Trump's dream year?
- Unemployment in September
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 68% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years? doit être résolu le 11 septembre 2028.
- Comment Will the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Its hard to quantify this exactly.