Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 58%
Oui 58%Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète22 oct. 25, 21:06 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that a new axis of AI scaling has emerged involving memory before January 1st 2029.
- This includes, but is not limited to, an algorithm that yields continued improvements on benchmarks as a function of inference-time memory (measured in e.g. gigabytes of RAM) across multiple orders of magnitude.
- This is distinct from the model weights that are memory invariant between training and inference.
- There must be evidence of a regime where this scaling occurs independent to the pretraining and inference-time compute scaling axes in order for this question to resolve YES.