Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleClaude Fable 5.x 100%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
58
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+9.6 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
30 août 26, 20:15 UTC30 sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
100%
100%
100%
100%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
September 2026 AI model releases
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
PolymarketWill OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during August 2026.
- A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).
- A US only release is enough to count as widely available.
- Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5").
- Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family.
- When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 132,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 322,4 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour September 2026 AI model releases ?
- Manifold Markets cote Claude Fable 5.x à 100% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand September 2026 AI model releases sera-t-il résolu ?
- September 2026 AI model releases doit être résolu le 30 septembre 2026.
- Comment September 2026 AI model releases est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during August 2026.