Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 86.6%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 54 minutes
En retard2 janv. 26, 07:38 UTC4 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Vietnam's real GDP grow by at least 12% in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill interest in lab grown diamond stud earrings continue to grow in the US by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
KalshiUS real GDP growth in 2026?
KalshiWill the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed 0.5% in Q4 2026?
ForecastExRègles
This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026
- It will resolve according to the judgement of the authors.
- If they don't publish a retrospective by the end of February, it will resolve according to my judgement.
Marchés ouverts
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+12.0pt64.7%
- No change-12.0pt34.3%
- 50+ bps increase+0.2pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 97,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 4,8 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.0%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 702,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 91 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 400 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%-1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-8.0pt26%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 34,5 k €
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP79%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-5.0pt62%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,3 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No97%
- Yes-3.0pt3%
- Volume total
- 2,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 4,9 k €
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- GDP growth in 2026
- China unemployment rate in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession in 2027?
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Real GDP will grow by less than 3.5% in the US in 2026 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 87% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Real GDP will grow by less than 3.5% in the US in 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Real GDP will grow by less than 3.5% in the US in 2026 doit être résolu le 4 janvier 2027.
- Comment Real GDP will grow by less than 3.5% in the US in 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026