Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 71.4%
Oui 71.4%Prévisionnistes
49
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète5 juin 24, 01:47 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will $10,000 worth of AI hardware be able to train a GPT-3 equivalent model in under 1 hour, by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow much compute will be used to train GPT-5?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will an o3-mini level model first run on a phone?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner claims:
- In 2027, a leading AI lab will be able to train a GPT-4-level model in a minute.
- Resolves YES if by the end of 2027, a credible claim is made that:
- Someone trained a GPT-4-level model in a minute.
- or 1440 GPT-4-level models in a day, to account for parallelism
- GPT-4-level will be evaluated using the same benchmarks as in the GPT-4 Technical Report Table 2.